Young Men Are Voting More Conservatively… or Are They?
In this insightful analysis, University of Sydney student Ruby Stitt examines the complex relationship between young men and conservative voting patterns, challenging common assumptions about political affiliations. Against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, social change, and political upheaval, the piece explores how various factors—from COVID-19 and climate change to housing crises and wealth inequality—have influenced young men's political leanings.
Drawing on international research and recent electoral outcomes across multiple countries, the article provides valuable insights for policymakers and researchers studying youth political engagement and the impact of economic policies on voting behavior. This piece offers crucial perspectives for anyone interested in understanding modern political movements, youth voting patterns, and the intersection of economic policy and electoral outcomes.
In the wake of Donald Trump’s election, as most scratched their heads wondering what just happened, one question rose from the ashes: Why are young men voting more conservatively, while young women are voting more progressively?
COVID-19, climate change, a housing crisis, inflation, degradation of democracy, mental health struggles, a growing wealth gap, and a cost-of-living calamity: The American Dream feels less achievable than ever, especially for young men to whom it has traditionally been promised. Waiting for a taste of trickle-down economics, this generation has been left parched in a desert of neoliberal economic policies.
As life has become harder for the average person, for charismatic, right-wing leaders, appealing to individuals who feel wronged by the system has effectively won them votes. Trump’s campaign spotlighted how populist politicians have appealed to this new demographic of young men, aged between 18-25, often sidelining women in their pitch. Trump rallied a promising return to USA strength and prosperity, and his policies catered to those hopefuls still pursuing the ever-pedestalised American Dream, to rise through the ranks and be credited with the rags-to-riches, Steve Jobs, success story.
How to Woo the ‘Manosphere’: A Guide for Dummies
To contextualise Trump, we must look at his origins in a cultural canon that wouldn’t pass the Bechdel test. Rising like bubbles in an 1980s boiling pot of macho pop culture, in an era of male strength and office dominance, Trump is a modern-day caricature combining Jordan Belfort and Patrick Bateman. Fueled by an anabolic steroid fad and trigger-happy CGI techs, movies like Die Hard, Rambo, and Lethal Weapon, centred on displays of aggression, zero empathy and stoicism. In this world, men ruled the world and didn't have to compete with capable, hardworking women for their executive positions.
Back in those days, men could say derogatory things and get away with it – even be made President after it! Yet today, as the boys' club is being broken up, where does this leave the boys? Unfortunately, seeking mentorship and validation from figures like Andrew Tate and Trump and in denial of how valuable increased participation of women in the workforce is.
To romance the ‘bro-vote, ’ Trump toured multiple male-dominated shows with large audiences, hosted by certified internet ‘bros’ like Theo Von, the Nelk Boys, YouTuber Logan Paul, Adin Ross, and Joe Rogan. His 3-hour interview on the world’s most consumed podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, was viewed by 38 million people in three days, and provided a long-form, unstructured format that bypassed gatekeepers of traditional media, appealing to young swing voters craving spontaneity and genuineness. Adopting a more appeasing and thoughtful persona, and recognising that young voters aren’t often seeking hard news and deep political conversations, Trump chatted about golf and MMA. In doing so, he enabled fence-sitting listeners to see him in a new presidential light, as a relatable, strong advocate for young men.
Utilising these arenas of the ‘manosphere’, Trump captivated streamers and podcasters on the political fringe, seducing their common audience of young men feeling unheard and left behind. This successful courting of the ‘manosphere’ paid off in the polls, where Trump scored huge gains among young men, winning this demographic 56% to Harris’s 42%.
Undoubtedly, Trump is dynamic, humorous and charismatic – talents which would’ve been perfect (and less existentially terrifying) as America's first orange comedian or a game show host! A truly devastating waste of potential. Trump's charm made disenchanted men feel big and seen, successfully tapping into grievances like increased competition for jobs, a breakdown of the nuclear family, and an erosion of masculinity, pointing at immigration and DEI policies to blame. His slogan, “Make America Great Again”, lands with young men who wish to return to a dominant social order where men's roles were clear and opportunities were a sure thing. By positioning himself as a ‘protector’ and offering better financial outcomes for men feeling the pressure to provide, Trump manipulated this identity anxiety in his favour.
Not used to being the ones on the receiving end, young men fell right into Trump's gaslighting trap. The feeling of knowing you've been played is never a fun one, and the stark reality of higher prices and more uncertainty, in what Trump describes as a “transition period”, has hit young men in their smooth, pre-moustache faces. Trump never cared about these young, working-class men he so desperately campaigned for, and only used their grievances to amass power. Correction: unless you are earning over $1M a year, then he loves you, thanks to his huge tax cuts for the 1%! The scary truth is that this plotline isn’t just one from a bad action movie, and we can’t reverse, pause or turn it off.
Progressivism Panics in Periods of Penny Pinching
Historically, we can see that during times of economic hardship, conservatism has risen. In the 1970s and 80s, economic challenges like inflation, rising unemployment, and an energy crisis, coupled with disappointment in liberal policies, sparked a desire for free markets and traditional values, most notably under Thatcher and Reagan. I’m having déjà vu…
When economic displacement arises, social resentment can creep in. Feelings of hopelessness, disappointment in social structures, and a rebellion against liberal values, or ‘wokeism’, can explain the rise of conservative charismatic leaders through right-wing parties. International research agency Glocalities found that increased despair, hopelessness, and growing disillusionment are fuelling political divides. It further uncovered that young men were the only population group in the United States and seven EU member states to have become more conservative since 2014. So whilst women were more concerned about social issues like domestic violence, men were focused on achieving social and economic status, and valued conservative family characteristics. Magnifying these trends are social media algorithms collectivising these men and drawing them towards radical conservative male role models and worldviews.
This trend has already impacted elections in Portugal, Poland, Germany, Slovakia, the Netherlands, and South Korea. New Zealand’s October elections saw a conservative swing after people were dissatisfied with Labour’s handling of the economy. This brought National’s Christopher Luxon into the prime minister role, with populist New Zealand First’s Winston Peters, a vocal opponent of Labour's incorporation of the Māori language who holds other nationalist and anti-immigration sentiments similar to Trump, as deputy prime minister for the first 18 months.
In Germany, support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surged in response to dissatisfaction with immigration, high energy costs, and violent crime. Statistics showed men aged 18-29 were twice as likely to vote for the hard-right AfD than women of the same age. While the AfD came second in their February election to the conservative opposition, the Christian Democrats, it points to an overarching trend in the rise of conservative and right-wing parties.
The Australian Bachelor: Dutton Gets Rejected, Stability Gets the Rose
In the Australian election campaigns, we saw that the Trump playbook does not fly down under. The landslide re-election of Anthony Albanese and the Australian Labor Party signifies a return to security amidst a tumultuous time internationally, largely inflicted by the U.S. President. It follows Canada’s similar swing towards Mark Carney’s Liberal Party, with Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposing Conservative Party, like Peter Dutton, also losing the seat he held for 20 years.
In 2023, 46% of Australians reported high or moderately high trust in the federal government, above the OECD average of 39%; however, only 23% of Americans trust the federal government, down from 35% in 2022. In a swing and miss campaign proposal, the Liberal Party's idea to sack 41,000 public servants in a Robert Menzies/Trump/ DOGE-esque move was drastically unsuccessful. Peter Dutton learnt the hard way that Australians appreciate public servants and value employment. Gutting the public sector, only to replace it with expensive consultants, is an American solution to an Australian problem.
Aussies value mateship and having each other's backs, and we trust our government because it is responsive, especially in events like disasters. So when news broke that Dutton was filling money bags on expensive lunches while Albanese was filling sandbags during Cyclone Alfred, the damage was already done, especially in his electorate of Dickson. His lack of action portrayed a ‘holier-than-thou’ attitude that was shredded by Australia's unforgiving tall poppy syndrome, and there his mutilated image lay, stuck in quicksand, for the remainder of the campaign.
Witnessing Trump's first 100 days of presidency gave rise to a new question: Is THAT what we want? Watching these disastrous effects on everyday American people has led people to turn away from unpredictability towards consistency, stability, and a safe pair of hands.
In his victory speech, Albanese said, “In this time of global uncertainty, Australians have chosen optimism and determination”. Albanese stressed that we will not take on the inspiration of other countries and that “Together we will make our way forward, with no one held back and no one left behind”, a dig at Dutton that was as subtle as a sledgehammer. Albanese was firm, contrasting Trump's rambling and gloating, focusing on productive political discussions and a plan to propel Australia forward. Yet, he was quick to call out the crowd booing when he mentioned Dutton, firmly stating that “In Australia, we treat people with respect”. A strategic move, driving home the point that he is the more empathetic, respectful, ‘true-blue Aussie’ choice.
In an election campaign operating in the shadows of the US presidency, young men swung left. Unable to shake comparisons to Trump, Dutton struggled against a backdrop of undesirable global outcomes. For Gen Z and Millennials, the cost of living crisis was a primary issue, a factor that Dutton never fully had a solution to. Furthermore, his lack of urgency on climate change, instead pushing a confusing nuclear proposal, didn’t succeed in seducing a cohort of ‘latte-sipping lefties’.
In a perfect Peter Dutton world, the Australian election would’ve directly followed Trump's, when young men’s morale was high and the conservative train was full steam ahead. However, as the dreams Trump promised in his campaign slip from the keen hands of this demographic, they are withdrawing their once steadfast support for him, and this disappointment has echoed worldwide.
Australia's election showed that whilst young Australian men are more conservative, they are still left of centre. Despite this, without the dark cloud that was Trump's first 100 days, and the global uncertainty created by the expansive tariffs, we may have seen a larger jump on the conservative bandwagon, producing a closer or different election outcome entirely. Dutton's misappropriation of Trump's tactics was culturally out of step, and his inability to bring young voters on board, exacerbated by his refusal to sit for interviews with any youth media outlets, cost the Liberals majorly. A final blow to a decimated Dutton was when Trump, the figure overshadowing his entire campaign, stated he had “no idea” who he was when interviewed post-Albanese-election. Brutal.
While we have a long way to go in the gender divide, Australia concluded it isn’t interested in Trump's divisive, hardline approach, instead seeking stability, mateship, and a new form of strong-man leadership.
Author: Ruby Stitt
Content moderator: Brianna Delahunty