COVID-19 Roadmap to Recovery: A Report for the Nation.
Australia’s Group of Eight University Taskforce have just released their recommendations for a road map to recovery from COVID-19. This post takes excerpts from the executive summary.
Covid-19 has changed the course of history. What started off as a flu-like illness in one person in one corner of the world, has changed the lives, livelihoods and futures of billions. Australia saw its first case on January 25 and now has over 6,600 cases, the country is in partial lockdown, schools and universities have left their campuses, hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost. Fortunately, the tide appears to be turning and we can start thinking of Recovery.
To chart a Roadmap to Recovery we convened a group of over a hundred of the country’s leading epidemiologists, infectious disease consultants, public health specialists, healthcare professionals, mental health and well-being practitioners, indigenous scholars, communications and behaviour change experts, ethicists, philosophers, political scientists, economists and business scholars from the Group of Eight (Go8) universities. The group developed this Roadmap in less than three weeks, through remote meetings and a special collaborative reasoning platform, in the context of a rapidly changing pandemic.
In this Executive Summary, we provide: one ethical framework; two options for pandemic response; three requirements for success in recovery regardless of which path is taken; and six imperatives in the implementation of recovery plan.
Nature of this Report and the Reasons for it
Rather than recommend a single dominant option for pandemic response in Australia, we present and explain two options for the nation’s consideration – Elimination or Controlled Adaptation. We offer two choices for several reasons:
First, there are considerable uncertainties around what we know about Covid-19. Estimates of critical determinants, such as the number of carriers, vary by a factor of ten. With such uncertainties in facts, there is a limit to how sure one can be.
Second, we completed this report in late April 2020, when the Prime Minister had already set the course to May 15th. Therefore, our job was to consider possibilities beyond that date. The facts regarding the pandemic will evolve and change between now and then. Therefore, rather than prescribe an outcome for three weeks hence – we propose to present a balanced case for two of them.
Any choice between these two options entails a delicate trade-off between protecting health, supporting the economy and societal well-being. It is not the role of researchers, or this report, to make this choice. That is the role of our Government. We are responsible for setting out the tradeoffs and that is what this report looks to provide.
Finally, this report focuses on the impact of the virus and short term recovery. The pandemic will change global economies and international relations. This will have significant impacts for Australia, its society and economy for years to come. That is not the focus of this report.
An Ethical framework to guide decision making
The Taskforce propose the following principles to guide us:
Whatever measures we implement to manage COVID-19 must be compatible with a commitment to democratic accountability and the protection of civil liberties. Special measures that require the restriction of movement, the imposition on freedoms, and the sharing of private data must be proportionate, time-bound, grounded in consent and subject to democratic review.
Equal access to healthcare and a social safety net must be provided for all members of our community. Attention should also be paid to the needs of the non-citizens, keeping in view their unique circumstances.
The virus has impacted us all, some more than others. The economic cost must be shared fairly across the whole community.
Although equal treatment is a fundamental Australian value, the virus, and our policies to control it have impacted some disproportionately. Therefore, renewal and recovery programs should focus on those most affected first. In the long run, they should foster social and economic innovation that will make all Australians more resilient in the face of future shocks.
Finally, there is the issue of partnership and personal responsibility. Recovery is not only what Governments can do for us. Strong recovery will require a trusted partnership between governments and civil society, including business, community sector, unions, academia and local communities. Recovery is something each person owes their neighbour. We need to look out for each other’s welfare in times like this. That is our way.
Two Options Proposed and a Third Rejected
For any jurisdiction facing an epidemic, there are three fundamental options:
1. Eliminate the illness
2. Suppress the illness to a low level and manage it, or
3. Allow the epidemic to run through the population in a way that does not overwhelm the healthcare system. Some have called this approach “herd immunity.”
At the very outset, the Taskforce rejected the third option which would entail somewhere close to 15 million Australians becoming infected. The disruption of healthcare, the lives lost, the inequalities of impact and the tragic consequences on society did not make this a viable option for Australia, as Government has made clear. This report focused on the remaining two.
Three requirements for success
1. Early Detection and Supported Isolation
2. Travel and Border Restrictions
3. Public Trust, Transparency and Civic Engagement
Six imperatives for implementation of recovery
1. The Health of our Healthcare System and its Workers
2. Preparing for Relaxation of Social Distancing
3. Mental Health and Wellbeing for All
4. The Care of Indigenous Australians
5. Equity of Access and Outcomes in Health Support
6. Clarity of Communication
The comprehensive final report details each point within the ethical framework, the options for pandemic response, requirements for success and the imperatives for the implementation of the recovery plan.